Top Markets - Prediction Market News

Fed decision in March?

No change: 100% 25 bps decrease: 0% 50+ bps decrease: 0% 25+ bps increase: 0%

Vol: $13.4M

Netanyahu out by...?

December 31: 42% June 30: 14% March 31: 3%

Vol: $8.3M

Elon Musk # tweets March 14 - March 16, 2026?

40-64: 84% 65-89: 9% <40: 6% 90-114: 1% +2 more

Vol: $6.5M

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom: 24% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 9% Kamala Harris: 5% Jon Ossoff: 5% +2 more

Vol: $5.1M

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49% J.D. Vance: 40% Marco Rubio: 26% Ron DeSantis: 3% +2 more

Vol: $4.6M

Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner

TISZA: 65% Fidesz-KDNP: 34% LMP: 0% Momentum: 0% +2 more

Vol: $4.2M

Iran strikes Israel on...?

March 4: 100% March 1: 100% March 2: 100% March 3: 100% +2 more

Vol: $4.1M

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance: 20% Gavin Newsom: 17% Marco Rubio: 12% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 5% +2 more

Vol: $4.0M

Elon Musk # tweets March 10 - March 17, 2026?

280-299: 34% 260-279: 33% 300-319: 17% 240-259: 7% +2 more

Vol: $3.4M

US x Iran ceasefire by...?

December 31: 71% June 30: 60% May 31: 48% April 30: 34% +2 more

Vol: $2.6M

Slovenian Parliamentary Election Winner

Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS): 93% Freedom Movement (GS): 6% Democrats (D): 1% Social Democrats (SD): 0% +2 more

Vol: $1.9M

Iran leadership change by...?

December 31: 68% April 30: 40% March 31: 16% March 13: 0%

Vol: $1.7M

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?: 3%

Vol: $1.5M

Colombia Chamber of Representatives Election Winner

Historic Pact for Colombia (PH): 99% Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC): 0% Centro Democrático (CD): 0% MIRA‑CJL coalition (MIRA‑CJL): 0% +2 more

Vol: $1.3M

Paris Mayoral Election

Emmanuel Grégoire: 93% Éric Grégoire: 33% Rachida Dati: 8% Pierre-Yves Bournazel: 0% +2 more

Vol: $1.1M

Elon Musk # tweets March 13 - March 20, 2026?

260-279: 16% 280-299: 14% 300-319: 14% 240-259: 13% +2 more

Vol: $839.5K

Fed decision in April?

No change: 94% 25 bps decrease: 4% 25+ bps increase: 2% 50+ bps decrease: 1%

Vol: $686.1K

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?

December 31: 84% June 30: 66% May 15: 56% April 30: 44% +2 more

Vol: $677.4K

Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner

John Cornyn: 60% Ken Paxton: 38% Wesley Hunt: 0% Dawn Buckingham: 0% +2 more

Vol: $675.1K

Next French Presidential Election

Jordan Bardella: 26% Édouard Philippe: 18% Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 10% Marine Le Pen: 8% +2 more

Vol: $636.0K

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?: 28%

Vol: $627.8K

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

June 30: 64% April 30: 46% March 31: 20% March 1: 0% +2 more

Vol: $589.2K

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?: 16%

Vol: $567.3K

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?: 1%

Vol: $531.9K

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: 40%

Vol: $494.9K

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?: 84%

Vol: $467.3K

Trump out as President by March 31?

Trump out as President by March 31?: 1%

Vol: $400.2K

Next Prime Minister of Hungary

Péter Magyar: 63% Viktor Orbán: 36% László Toroczkai: 1% István Kapitány: 0% +2 more

Vol: $297.6K

Colombia Presidential Election

Candidate M: 50% Iván Cepeda Castro: 40% Paloma Valencia: 36% Abelardo de la Espriella: 16% +2 more

Vol: $292.9K

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?: 14%

Vol: $269.8K

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?: 2%

Vol: $266.7K

Next President of Vietnam

Tô Lâm: 90% Trần Thanh Mẫn: 4% Phan Văn Giang: 3% Trần Cẩm Tú: 2% +2 more

Vol: $261.8K

Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?

April 30: 12% March 31: 7%

Vol: $253.9K

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh: 95% Michelle Bowman: 2% Judy Shelton: 2% Stephen Miran: 0% +2 more

Vol: $250.1K

Will Trump visit China by...?

April 30, 2026: 69% March 31, 2026: 33% October 31, 2025: 0%

Vol: $248.5K

Brazil Presidential Election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 46% Flávio Bolsonaro: 38% Ratinho Júnior: 5% Renan Santos: 4% +2 more

Vol: $244.5K

California Governor Election Winner

Eric Swalwell: 56% Tom Steyer: 10% Chad Bianco: 10% Matt Mahan: 9% +2 more

Vol: $234.1K

Elon Musk # tweets March 17 - March 24, 2026?

320-339: 14% 300-319: 12% 280-299: 10% 340-359: 10% +2 more

Vol: $232.1K

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Volodymyr Zelenskyy: 14% Donald Trump: 8% Yulia Navalnaya: 8% Pope Leo XIV: 4% +2 more

Vol: $226.4K

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: 9%

Vol: $217.5K

Which countries will strike Iran by March 31?

Saudi Arabia: 15% UAE: 14% Qatar: 10% Bahrain: 7% +2 more

Vol: $214.3K

Who will advance to 2026 Paris municipal election 2nd round?

Rachida Dati: 100% Emmanuel Grégoire: 99% Sophia Chikirou: 91% Sarah Knafo: 55% +2 more

Vol: $209.0K

2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election Winner

Choo Mi-ae: 62% Kim Dong-yeon: 30% Yoo Seung-min: 7% Han Jun-ho: 3% +2 more

Vol: $205.9K

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

4: 30% 3: 28% 5: 18% 6: 8% +2 more

Vol: $205.4K

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Delcy Rodríguez: 60% Nicolás Maduro: 15% María Corina Machado: 14% Edmundo González: 3% +2 more

Vol: $197.1K

Elon Musk musk # tweets in March 2026?

1400+: 41% 1360-1399: 15% 1320-1359: 10% 1280-1319: 9% +2 more

Vol: $194.0K

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner

Chong Won-oh: 84% Oh Se-hoon: 10% Park Ju-min: 5% Ahn Cheol-soo: 1% +2 more

Vol: $175.0K

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

3.5%: 28% 3.25%: 22% 3.75%: 16% 2.75%: 10% +2 more

Vol: $173.7K

Hungary Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory

Tisza 9%+: 42% Tisza 6-9%: 18% Fidesz-KDNP 3-6%: 9% Fidesz-KDNP 0-3%: 8% +2 more

Vol: $165.9K

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Orbán - Hungary PM: 37% Díaz-Canel - Cuba President: 21% Netanyahu - Israel PM: 17% Starmer - UK PM: 5% +2 more

Vol: $149.9K

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?: 17%

Vol: $142.7K

Who will win the Lyon mayoral election?

Grégory Doucet: 82% Jean-Michel Aulas: 17% Alexandre Dupalais: 0% Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert: 0% +2 more

Vol: $141.5K

What will Trump say this week (March 15)?

Fake News: 100% Transgender: 100% Television / TV: 100% Central Casting: 100% +2 more

Vol: $137.5K

Next Prime Minister of Vietnam

Lê Minh Hưng: 95% Trần Lưu Quang: 4% Nguyễn Hòa Bình: 0% Phạm Minh Chính: 0% +2 more

Vol: $132.1K

Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

No meeting by June 30: 68% Other EU country: 8% Russia: 5% Gulf country: 4% +2 more

Vol: $129.4K

Elon Musk # tweets March 16 - March 18, 2026?

65-89: 32% 90-114: 25% 40-64: 21% 115-139: 12% +2 more

Vol: $128.4K

Military action against Iran ends on...?

Military action through March 31: 82% March 30: 3% March 31: 3% March 29: 2% +2 more

Vol: $123.5K

Illinois Republican Senate Primary Winner

Don Tracy: 94% Jeannie Evans: 4% R. Cary Capparelli: 1% Lloyd Jones: 0% +2 more

Vol: $122.2K

2026 South Korean Local Elections: Party Winner

Democratic Party of Korea (DP): 96% People Power Party (PPP): 4% Progressive Party (PP): 0% Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP): 0% +2 more

Vol: $120.7K

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Benjamin Netanyahu: 43% Naftali Bennett: 28% Gadi Eizenkot: 14% Yair Lapid: 2% +2 more

Vol: $116.5K

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?: 6%

Vol: $115.4K

Andrew Tate # posts March 10 - March 17, 2026?

<100: 64% 100-129: 29% 130-159: 1% 160-189: 1% +2 more

Vol: $106.7K

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?: 22%

Vol: $106.2K

What will happen before GTA VI?

Drake releases Iceman: 89% New Rihanna Album: 62% GPT-6 released: 60% New Playboi Carti Album : 55% +2 more

Vol: $104.1K

Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner

Swedish Social Democratic Party (S): 88% Moderate Party (M): 5% Sweden Democrats (SD): 4% Green Party (MP): 2% +2 more

Vol: $99.7K

Scotland Parliamentary Election Winner

Scottish National Party: 98% Scottish Labour: 1% Scottish Green Party: 0% Scottish Conservatives: 0% +2 more

Vol: $98.9K

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤47: 24% 49: 18% 48: 14% 50: 14% +2 more

Vol: $93.9K

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: 14%

Vol: $89.7K

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: 18%

Vol: $84.4K

When will the DHS shutdown end?

After March 31: 79% March 24-27: 15% March 28-31: 4% March 20-23: 2% +2 more

Vol: $79.7K

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time: 28% 60+: 26% <20: 18% 40–60: 14% +1 more

Vol: $76.4K

Fed Decision in June?

No change: 60% 25 bps decrease: 31% 25 bps increase: 3% 50+ bps decrease: 3% +1 more

Vol: $73.0K

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: 11%

Vol: $69.8K

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei: 32% Reza Pahlavi: 14% No Head of State: 8% Ali Larijani: 7% +2 more

Vol: $69.5K

What will Powell say during March Press Conference?

Good Afternoon: 98% Volatile: 94% Housing: 93% Gold / Oil: 87% +2 more

Vol: $69.3K

Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?

Paramount: 74% None by June 30, 2027: 15% Netflix: 3% Comcast: 0% +2 more

Vol: $68.1K

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

No Next PM in 2026: 34% Angela Rayner: 13% Ed Miliband: 12% Nigel Farage: 8% +2 more

Vol: $64.7K

Military action against Iran ends by...?

March 22: 18% March 30: 18% March 28: 17% March 31: 17% +2 more

Vol: $64.4K

Texas Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory (Smaller Brackets)

Talarico 6.0–6.5%: 94% Talarico 5.5–6.0%: 1% Talarico 6.5–7.0%: 1% Talarico 9.0–9.5%: 0% +2 more

Vol: $63.6K

US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by...?

March 31: 22% March 15: 0%

Vol: $62.2K

Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner

Byron Donalds: 82% James Fishback: 12% Jay Collins: 2% Casey DeSantis: 1% +2 more

Vol: $61.1K

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?: 32%

Vol: $57.9K

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: 48%

Vol: $57.8K

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts March 10 - March 17, 2026?

100-119: 66% 80-99: 22% 120-139: 8% 140-159: 2% +2 more

Vol: $57.0K

Peru Presidential Election Winner

Rafael López Aliaga: 40% Alfonso López Chau: 15% Keiko Fujimori: 14% Jorge Nieto: 11% +2 more

Vol: $52.3K

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

December 31: 10% March 31: 1%

Vol: $52.2K

Marseille Mayoral Election Winner

Benoît Payan: 90% Franck Allisio: 11% Erwann Davoux: 0% Sébastien Delogu: 0% +2 more

Vol: $47.0K

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Flávio Bolsonaro: 64% Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 18% Ratinho Júnior: 12% Fernando Haddad: 3% +2 more

Vol: $44.6K

Ohio Governor Republican Primary Winner

Vivek Ramaswamy: 94% Casey Putsch: 5% Philip Funderburg: 0% Other: 0% +2 more

Vol: $43.5K

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

June 30: 62% April 30: 26% March 31: 6% March 15: 0%

Vol: $43.1K

Next Prime Minister of Denmark after parliamentary election?

Mette Frederiksen: 78% Troels Lund Poulsen: 16% Lars Løkke Rasmussen: 3% Alex Vanopslagh: 2% +2 more

Vol: $42.0K

Trump out as President by June 30?

Trump out as President by June 30?: 6%

Vol: $41.4K

Who will win the Nice mayoral election?

Eric Ciotti: 94% Christian Estrosi: 6% Mireille Damiano: 0% Juliette Chesnel-Leroux: 0% +2 more

Vol: $41.3K

Which countries will Iran strike in March?

Israel: 100% Jordan: 100% Saudi Arabia: 100% Bahrain: 100% +2 more

Vol: $41.2K

Republican 2026 Senate odds hit___ by March 31?

↓ 55%: 100% ↓ 50%: 100% ↓ 60%: 100% ↓ 40%: 8% +2 more