How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
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Investors are closely monitoring the Middle East conflict's impact on U.S. interest rate expectations as the Federal Reserve meets. Surges in oil prices have raised concerns about inflation and slowed hopes for rate cuts. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady, with future adjustments influenced by evolving economic conditions.
Federal Reserve officials are likely to keep interest rates steady next week. The ongoing US-Israel war on Iran is creating market uncertainty and impacting oil prices. Recent economic figures also indicate a slowdown. Policymakers face a challenge balancing inflation concerns with employment figures. Traders are adjusting expectations for rate cuts.
Federal Reserve officials are likely to keep interest rates steady next week. The ongoing US-Israel war on Iran is creating market uncertainty and impacting oil prices. Recent economic figures also indicate a slowdown. Policymakers face a challenge balancing inflation concerns with employment figures. Traders are adjusting expectations for rate cuts.
A U.S. judge halted subpoenas in a criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, citing intimidation by a Trump-appointed prosecutor. The investigation concerns overruns in Fed renovations and allegations against Powell, viewed as attempts to pressure the Fed into rate cuts. The Justice Department plans to appeal.