Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
Market Description
In February 2026, the Pentagon announced it would designate Anthropic as a national security supply chain risk after Anthropic refused to remove AI safety restrictions from its acceptable use policy. Donald Trump subsequently directed all federal agencies to cease using Anthropic's technologies, with a six-month phase-out period for agencies such as the Department of Defense which are actively using Anthropic's products. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic and the United States Department of Defense (DOD/Department of War) reach any commercial agreement to allow for the use of Claude or other Anthropic artificial intelligence models by DOD employees by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A commercial agreement between Anthropic and a broader set of the US government that grants usage of Anthropic AI models to DOD employees will count. Agreements or designations which allow Anthropic to offer its services to the DOD, but do not constitute an effective agreement for Anthropic to do so, however, will not count (e.g the inclusion of Anthropic on a Master Service Agreement or Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity contract would not count). An official announcement of a qualifying agreement, made within this market’s timeframe, will count, regardless of whether or when the agreement actually goes into effect. Official announcements that the previously agreed contract between Anthropic and the DOD will be fully or partially reinstated, or otherwise will continue without impediment, will count, so long as this includes extended use of Anthropic AI models by DOD employees beyond any designated phase-out period. Continued use of Anthropic technologies by DOD employees without a qualifying agreement (e.g. during a 6 month phase-out period) will not count. A court ruling that the designation of Anthropic as a supply chain risk is unlawful will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless it is accompanied by a reinstatement of Anthropic's DOD contract or a new qualifying Anthropic-DOD agreement. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Anthropic and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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Tech News News: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Dell Technologies CEO Michael Dell may be on the \"same page\" about the Pentagon's decision to cancel Anthropic's deal. Dell .
The Pentagon's Chief Technology Officer has shut down talks with AI firm Anthropic. This decision comes after the agency identified Anthropic as a supply-chain risk. The CTO stated there is no chance of an agreement. He cited leaking and bad-faith negotiation as reasons for the breakdown. The leadership has proven they do not want to reach a deal.
The military is removing all of Anthropic's AI tools from its systems
During an interview with Bloomberg, Emil Michael, the under secretary of defense for research and engineering, says Anthropic’s move to sue the Pentagon was an “expected reaction” to its designation as a supply-chain risk. “I don’t think there’s a scenario where this gets resolved in that way,” Michael says, Bloomberg reports. [Link: Pentagon Official Sees Little Chance to Revive Anthropic AI Deal | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-10/pentagon-official-sees-little-chance-to-revive-anthropic-ai-deal | Bloomberg]
Emil Michael, the under secretary of defense for research and engineering, said Monday that Anthropic’s lawsuit was an “expected reaction”.
A top Pentagon official has revealed the future of the AI deal with Anthropic, stating he sees little chance of resuming negotiations with the tech company after its legal clash with the Trump...
Emil Michael, the under secretary of defense for research and engineering, said Monday that Anthropic’s lawsuit was an “expected reaction” and that the company’s attempt to reverse the supply-chain declaration wouldn’t alter the Pentagon’s decision.
OpenAI manager resigns to protest Pentagon deal.
A top Pentagon official sees little chance of resuming negotiations with Anthropic PBC over military use of its artificial intelligence tools following the company’s legal challenge of an unprecedented government move to declare the firm a supply-chain risk.
Executives at the AI startup say companies paused deal talks after the Trump administration labeled it a supply-chain risk, warning that the fallout could cause a major revenue hit.