What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another. If the agreement is officially reached before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached or a consensus of credible reporting that Warsh has been confirmed will suffice.
Related News
If confirmed, Warsh would take charge of monetary policy decisions at a critical time for inflation management, interest rates, and financial stability.
President Trump’s effort to get Kevin M. Warsh confirmed as the next Federal Reserve chair has been complicated by a criminal investigation into Jerome H. Powell.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to help Kevin Warsh walk the tightrope as the incoming Federal Reserve chairman.
Assuming Kevin Warsh’s nomination to lead the Federal Reserve is confirmed, it will be interesting to see whether and for how long he will be able give the White House what it wants. Things could quickly go bad.
Since Friday, fellow Federal Reserve nerds and market analysts have been poring over the résumé of Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s new nominee for Fed chair, trying to read between the lines to determine what kind of central bank chief he’ll be if confirmed.
Many on Wall Street view Warsh as an inflation hawk, someone who prefers higher rates to keep a lid on prices. In fact, Warsh is considered the most hawkish of the finalists to run the Fed.
Kevin Warsh has been tapped as the next chair of the Federal Reserve. We’re sure that he’ll have a lot of questions about how to run the Fed if confirmed. So we put together this briefing.On today’s show, three Fed watchers give their advice for the next chair. On politics, interest rate cuts and dealing with the Fed’s repeated trading scandals. Oh, and can someone please forward this episode to Kevin Warsh?Related episodes: One Fed battle after anotherLisa Cook and the fight for the FedA primer on the Federal Reserve's independenceIt's hard out there for a Fed chairFor sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Fact-checking by Sierra Juarez. Music by Drop Electric. Find us: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Newsletter.
Sydney, Feb 2 The Conversation After months of speculation, US President Donald Trump confirmed he will be nominating Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the US Federal Reserve. Understanding why requires the context of Trumps ongoing conflict with the Federal Reserve, and the importance of central bank independence to our current global financial system.
Gold, Silver Rate Today LIVE: The gold and silver prices’ crash was triggered by a surge in US dollar after a report the Donald Trump administration was preparing to nominate Kevin Warsh for the US Federal Reserve chair, a move later confirmed.
President Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his pick to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Warsh was an advisor to George W. Bush and served on the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011. If confirmed, Warsh will succeed current Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May. Amna Nawaz discussed more with David Wessel.